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1. World: Evolution of the pandemicDaily new cases per million population by region, 7-day mov. average1,100New cases per million1,000900800700600500400300200CanadaEuro 021Q2NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)2. Developed countries: Perspective on COVID-19 cases and deathsNew cases and new deaths in Europe and North America, 7-day mov. average# of people# of people500,00010,000Cases 0Deaths 050,0001,000002020Q12020Q22020Q3NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)2020Q42021Q12021Q2

3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countriesDaily change in cases and in deaths, 7 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)New cases (left axis)New deaths (right axis)WorldCanada10,000deaths 200cases9,0001,500,000 00602,000401,0002002020Q2NBF Economics and 20Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins 002002,0001002,000101,00000-102020Q12020Q2NBF Economics and Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2NBF Economics and StrategySouth Africa24,000United Kingdomcasesdeaths60065,000 casesdeaths 001002,00050002020Q12020Q2NBF Economics and Strategy2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2002020Q1NBF Economics and Strategy2020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2

3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)Daily change in cases and in deaths (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)New cases (left axis)New deaths (right 21Q2002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2NBF Economics and StrategyNBF Economics and StrategySouth 020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2NBF Economics and StrategyNBF Economics and StrategySouth eaths600120,000 2020Q12020Q2NBF Economics and 12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1NBF Economics and Strategy*Correction on May 20th of 349 116 duplicated cases.Des indicateurs plus précis pour le suivi des cas confirmés de Covid-19 (santepubliquefrance.fr)2021Q2

4. World, cases per million populationTotal cases permillion populationsince start of thepandemicAverage new daily cases per million populationQ2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Argentina89 51915.6166.6212.3Colombia71 74621.2158.0175.6Chile76 003160.4105.383.7Brazil80 72672.2174.3147.6France263 35623.963.7340.1Bolivia34 133100.5305.874.5Sweden107 01168.626.8370.8Denmark49 77918.828.6255.1Netherlands97 43524.244.8429.9Belgium92 91746.153.5497.4Spain79 40236.0120.9269.6South Africa29 10027.895.971.1India21 2894.745.131.5United Kingdom66 70739.727.1325.9Turkey63 52924.315.3246.2Portugal83 47737.435.6359.4Switzerland81 34119.227.1504.8Canada36 91628.315.8121.1Norway23 6588.610.371.8United States101 34981.9152.6420.5Ecuador24 92134.350.447.2Ukraine51 73711.141.8215.6Cambodia2 1540.00.10.1Italy69 95224.513.4321.7Austria72 2869.332.6383.6Germany44 45316.212.6191.0Indonesia6 9072.29.318.3Mexico19 11019.344.058.2Finland16 88311.55.451.3Japan6 0391.45.613.0South Korea2 8440.72.38.0Vietnam960.00.10.0Israel98 55425.2276.6224.4Australia1 1991.58.20.6China720.00.00.0Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE*France : correction on May 20th of 349 116 duplicated cases.Des indicateurs plus précis pour le suivi des cas confirmés de Covid-19 (santepubliquefrance.fr)Q1 2021Last 28 daysLast 7 days7 days vs28 .41.20.50.0ihhihhiiiiihihihiiiiiihiiihiiihhihh

5. World, deaths per million populationTotal deaths permillion populationsince start of ineFranceIndiaEcuadorSouth AfricaMexicoSwedenUnited lUnited KingdomDenmarkIsraelFinlandSouth KoreaNorwayVietnamAustraliaChinaData via Johns Hopkins 1883437753173391461363Average new daily deaths per million populationQ2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Last 28 daysLast 7 days7 days vs28 iiihihiiiiihiihiihihhiiiiihii

6. Canada, cases per million populationTotal cases permillion populationsince start of sh ColumbiaQuebecNova ScotiaNewfoundlandNew BrunswickPrince Edward IslandData via Johns Hopkins CSSE38 53740 31451 89236 96528 30343 3975 8142 5992 9011 291Average new daily cases per million populationQ2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Last 28 daysLast 7 days7 days vs28 iii7. United States, cases per million populationTotal cases permillion populationsince start of rth aGeorgiaOhioNew YorkNew ylandData via Johns Hopkins CSSE57 99099 399111 025121 534102 29295 944108 61899 70794 604109 35998 371106 12694 561108 302114 646126 572116 04396 121102 76676 209Average new daily cases per million populationQ2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Last 28 daysLast 7 days7 days vs28 ihiihiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

8. Canada: Current hospitalisations related to COVID-19Hospitalisations per million population220Hospitalisations per C2002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2NBF Economics and Strategy (data via INSPQ, Radio Canada gation/)9. Canada: Current hospitalisations in ICU related to COVID-19Hospitalisations in ICU per million population6560Hospitalisations in ICU permillion 20Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1NBF Economics and Strategy (data via INSPQ, Radio Canada gation/)2021Q2

10. World: Perspective on vaccine rollout (1)Share of population partly and fully vaccinated of COVID-19IsraelCanadaUnited KingdomChileUnited diaRussiaWorldJapanNew .49 17.923.413.1816.5510.43.28 13.652.99.2612.195.96.0811.977.63.85 7120304050Partly vaccinatedFully vaccinated% of population6070NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html forCanada)11. World: Perspective on vaccination rollout (2)Share of population that received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine over 420AUS1612JPN8402021m12021m22021m32021m4NBF Economics and Strategy (data via m52021m62021m7

12. Canada: Perspective on vaccine rolloutShare of population partly and fully vaccinated of COVID-19 vaccineQuebec58.5British Columbia58.2New Brunswick7.16.756.7Canada6.253.9Newfoundland andLabrador8.056.5Manitoba62.33.4 62.153.7Nova erta44.612.9Saskatchewan44.812.261.158.657.6Partly vaccinatedPrince Edward Island47.215259.035Fully vaccinated57.056.34555% of population6575NBF Economics and Strategy (data via 13. Canada: Vaccinated population and distribution of weekly casesNew weekly cases and population that has received at least one dose of a vaccine, by age (as of May 29th)30100%92.291.5Share of vaccinated population (r)25.2259085.2Proportion of new weekly cases 69*0-17 for vaccine doses, 0-19 for cases **18-29 for vaccine doses, 20-29 for casesNBF Economics and Strategy (data via Public Health Agency of Canada, Statistics Canada)70-7980

14. Canada: Covid-19 stringency indexStringency of policy related to containment restrictions and public information campaigns, 7-day mov. ticOntarioBritish Columbia02020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bank of Canada)15. Canada and United States*: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, 7-day mov. average20% change from baseline*10Chica go (Cook County )MontrealToronto0Los Angeles CountyNew York 0Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2* 3 biggest cities of Canada and United States and Miami**The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6 2020NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

16. Canada and United States*: Back to normal index (2)Google mobility data for transit and workplaces, workdays only, 5-day mov. average10% change from baseline*0-10Chicago (Cook County )MontrealTorontoMiami-20Los Angeles CountyNew York 20Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3* 3 biggest cities of Canada and United States and Miami**The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6 2020NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)17. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index5.5StdevLehman bankruptcyand AIG bailout5.04.5COVID-19outbreak andOPEC/Russia oilprice warFear of Chineserecession andpetrol supplyshock4.03.5U.S. governmentcredit downgradeand 920102011201220132014NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)2015201620172018201920202021

NBF Financial Stress Index for CanadaVariablesEstimationBeta S&P/TSX financialsβ cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r daily percentage change in theS&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadiangovernment bond yield.S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.BBB rated corporate bond yield spreadBBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.Provincical spreadLong-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

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